December 24, 2009
Revisions in Forecasts for Japan’s Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle Demand for Fiscal Year 2009
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA, Satoshi Aoki, Chairman) has revised its forecasts for passenger car and commercial vehicle demand during fiscal year 2009.
In March 2009, JAMA prepared and announced its Forecasts for Japan’s Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle Demand in Fiscal Year 2009. Subsequent to that, however, while the economic environment worsened beyond the level originally anticipated, the Japan’s subsidy scheme for Environmental friendly vehicles (“eco-cars”) were introduced to stimulate demand and other changes occurred in background factors contributing to the formulation of demand. In view of this situation, JAMA reached the decision to revise its demand forecasts and release the updated version to the public.
The principal reasons for the revisions are as follows (see the attached materials for unit adjustments).
[Motor Vehicles]
<Passenger Cars>
Demand stimulation has emerged on the strength of eco-friendly car tax reduction and subsidy measures, prompting expectations that the effects of this shift will be sustained. This has led to projections that demand will exceed the initial estimates.
<Trucks>
For standard and small-size trucks, major declines in distribution volume have also caused demand to fall below the initial forecasts. For mini-size trucks, however, the move to replace older vehicles with newer models has lifted demand above the original forecasts, with total demand for all trucks anticipated to better the earlier projections.
<Buses>
The economic slump has pushed replacement demand to low levels, leading to projections that bus demand will finish below the initial forecast.
<Grand Total for Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles>
There are signs that demand is being stimulated by eco-friendly car tax reductions and subsidies, with expectations that those effects will continue. Based on this shift, it is forecast that demand will exceed the original estimates.
